By DAVID BEILSTEIN
RASMUSSEN REPORTS TODAY, September 13, President Obama’s lead has vanished. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is back in the lead. Even more interestingly, Rasmussen’s poll shows President Obama is back down around 46% with Romney at 47% to 49% if “leaners” are tallied into the polling.
This indicates to me Obama’s approval rating is between 44-46%. Not good enough, historically, to be reelected. Somewhere else, commentators speculated Obama’s bounce — given little movement in swing state polls — was confined to states the president was already comfortably ahead. In other words, Obama’s convention performance solidified Democratic support.
Solidified parties don’t win the presidency, alone. They are necessary, but simply the needed foundation to persuade the majority of Americas of a confident, cogent, campaign. Sure, candidates without a unified party will lose, but only because of its effect upon the pathology of the majority. The question is, therefore, the sentiment of a party cascading and becoming the sentiment of a majority of Americans.
Polls indicate the country is, albeit slowly, drifting away from Barack Obama. His party, consequently, is sticking by him. That’s all well and good — understandable too — but it does not win or keep the presidency. President Obama’s 2008 march to victory included far more territory than pure blue states. Obama gathered Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and other states, to topple John McCain’s candidacy. States, despite George W. Bush’s narrow victories, that voted Republican in 2000 and 2004.
The road lays open. Romney-Ryan must sharpen their attack, colour even more distinctions between their vision and Obama’s. They need to draw more philosophical distinctions, more contours of ideological consequence. The countries mood and temper allow for a serious attack of Obama’s record — while at the same time America stands hungry for Romney to offer stirring arguments for a future of beginnings, not endings.
President Barack Obama did not overcome the primal argument of the upcoming election during the Democratic National Convention. His speech was tepid, — unanchored. In the short term, it might have appeared to rally a pack of narcissistic moonbats, seemingly producing headway for Obama’s poll numbers. Still, during the Democratic Convention, team Obama tried to argue itself in a circle regarding economic platitudes that do not exist. Things have become worse, not better — just this week.
Former President Bill Clinton can spin magic, but he does not define or create economic reality for millions of Americas. Millions, by-the-way, whom decide the presidency. In truth, the same momentum catching flame this election hit Bill Clinton campaign in 1992. In President George H.W. Bush’s lack of response, Clinton rode the crest of a majority of American’s concerns into the Oval Office. That’s it. And Barack Obama, in light of McCain’s impotency, did the same in 2008. Like always, the media simply creates a messianic narrative to describe the obvious … making simple things complex. Americans were hurt and struggling in 2008 … so they replaced leadership after eight years of Republican rule. It’s hard for ideological sides to see the common sense of this because for ideologues, the opposing party is never seen as an option. But the majority of people who elect our nations president don’t see things like that.
In consequence, I’m skeptical whether President Obama actually received a bounce. And fundamentally of more importance, the intangibles of this pugilistic contest, to my eyes, go unchanged. Obama is ripe for defeat.
Romney-Ryan have an opportunity. An opportunity to attack the presidents record in meaningful and expansive terms — not on superficial grounds. The mistake is to conclude the American people are not deep enough to understand the soil of this election.
While I stand by my assertion people vote on experiential terms, not ideological — the fact of the matter is, given the milieu upon which this election is being waged, the ideological soil of the 2012 presidential election is helpful to Romney-Ryan. So use it, boys, is all. The Republican ticket has a country willing to be at their back, strongly, now they must make the case.